Moderna

Methodology

Moderna's earnings are extremely volatile and uncertain, swinging from COVID vaccine windfalls to potential losses as pandemic revenue normalizes and pipeline investments increase. The transition from COVID dependency to diversified mRNA products creates unpredictability. Traditional valuation methods based on current earnings are unreliable; focus on pipeline value and platform potential instead.

Methodology

PEG analysis is largely meaningless for Moderna given collapsing COVID vaccine revenue, negative baseline earnings, and speculative pipeline-dependent growth. Growth rates swing wildly between contraction and expansion based on product timing. Biotech companies like Moderna are better valued using risk-adjusted pipeline NPV models rather than earnings-based metrics.

Methodology

Moderna pays no dividend, making PEGY equal to PEG, though both metrics are problematic given earnings volatility and pipeline dependence. Capital allocation focuses entirely on R&D investments in mRNA platform expansion. For this clinical-stage biotech transitioning from COVID success, platform potential and pipeline probability matter far more than current earnings.