BA • Industrials • Aerospace & Defense

Boeing

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Valuations

Peter Lynch Fair Value
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Price/Earnings to Growth
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Price/Earnings to Growth & Dividend Yield
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Methodology

Boeing's commercial aircraft and defense business faces significant earnings volatility from production issues, regulatory challenges, and aircraft delivery timing. The company's duopoly with Airbus provides long-term visibility, but near-term execution problems and the 737 MAX crisis created massive losses. This calculation is highly unreliable for Boeing during crisis periods—normalized earnings based on steady-state production rates provide better baselines than current distorted results.

Methodology

Boeing's PEG ratio is often meaningless given wildly swinging earnings from production problems, regulatory groundings, and defense contract timing. The company's valuation depends more on production recovery assumptions and defense backlog than traditional growth metrics. For Boeing, sum-of-the-parts analysis valuing commercial and defense separately based on normalized earnings and order backlogs provides better insight than PEG during turbulent periods.

Methodology

Boeing suspended its dividend during the pandemic and 737 MAX crisis, prioritizing cash preservation and debt reduction. The PEGY is not applicable without a dividend, and reinstatement timing depends on production normalization and balance sheet repair. For Boeing investors, the focus remains on production ramp trajectories, regulatory clearances, and free cash flow inflection rather than capital return metrics until the company stabilizes operations.

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